Magellan predicts early May end for Italy’s COVID-19 cases

The zero contagion point for COVID-19 in Italy should arrive at the beginning of May, according to a study commissioned by Magellan Robotech – a subsidiary of Stanleybet Group – to analyse the likely trends of the virus.

Details of the study, which has been carried out by the Robotics Division of the Liverpool Group, were released to all Stanleybet affiliates earlier this week.

It comes as Stanleybet has been forced to close the doors of its European retail estate in line with government advice, resulting in all operations shifting online.

By constructing a mathematical model, the robotics division has analysed data from the Civil Protection and Health Authorities of several countries and the World Health Organisation. The data primarily looked at the spread of the virus across the world, and attempted to create a predictive model.

The study predominantly focused upon the eight key jurisdictions that Stanleybet operates in: England, Denmark, Belgium, Romania, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus and Italy – one of the hardest hit countries in the world.

According to the Magellan model, the peak of the virus in Italy was reached on 27 March after which the number of infected individuals is expected to decrease. Data suggests that the number of new contagions in Italy could ‘reach zero level at any time between 3 and 11 May’.

Dr Garrisi, the Stanleybet CEO and creator of the Magellan mathematical model, issued a warning to tamper some of the study’s optimism. Through a phone interview from Malta, he said: “I am confident that the predictions developed by us will prove substantially correct. However, there is a risk. In fact, our model shows that the contagion trend in the coming days should collapse exponentially.

“In other words, we will see the number of new infected individuals decrease by the day with astonishing speed, but the curve will thereafter slow down and tend to become flat with an enervating “swing behaviour” equally changing by the day, to reach the zero contagion point at the beginning of May. It is, therefore, to be expected that in the coming days between 7 and 15 April a mood of euphoria will prevail, as if the problem was eventually overcome.

“Mind you, this is not the case. A relaxation of the strictest compliance with the prescriptions of the authorities could result in a fresh uptake of the pandemic instead. All of us must absolutely stay at home, not only until the day when the absence of new contagions is declared, but safely well beyond that point in time.

“Provided all of us remain compliant and strict in observing the prescriptions of the authorities, the gambling sector may start to think of a re-opening of physical operations within the end of May.”

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