Teaming up with Stats Perform’s AI team, football analysis blog TheAnalyst.com has provided its ‘empirical answer’ as to who will win this summer’s UEFA 2020 European Championships (11 June to 11 July).
Crunching the numbers on teams past and present performance, against a plethora of factors determining the likely outcome of the tournament’s groups and matches – Stats Perform has provided its ‘% chance of winning’ for each of Euro 2020’s 24 participating teams.
The sports data firm’s Euro Prediction Model analyses betting market odds as well as Stats Performs own team rankings, based on both historical and recent team performance, as well as considering the ability of teams’ opponents and the difficulty of ‘the path to the final’.
Though currently priced 5/1 as the bookmakers’ joint pre-tournament favourites – England are ranked eighth by Stats Perform’s model, given a 5.2% chance of winning the tournament for the first time in the national team’s history.
In the case of the Three Lions, no team has played as many games as England in the European Championship without ever reaching the final (31 matches) and England are one of nine sides with a 1-in-20 chance or greater to win the tournament.
However, Stats Perform noted that England faces a ‘tough route to an unlikely final’, in which Gareth Southgate’s team will likely face the proven winning sides of France, Spain or Germany in the quarter-finals, and Belgium, Italy or the Netherlands in the semi-finals.
The 2018 FIFA World Cup winners France, however, were touted as the favourites to claim the title at 20.5%, followed by Belgium at 15.7% and Spain at 11.3%.
Didier Deschamps’ side have the chance to break records, with the Frenchman facing the prospect of becoming the first person to win the World Cup and European Championship both as player and manager, whilst the team could become only the fourth team to win back-to-back World Cup and European Championships.
Nevertheless, dubbed ‘the group of death’, Les Bleus have been given a 46.8% chance of progressing from Group F, while reigning champions Portugal were given a 19.4% chance of progressing from the group which also includes Hungary. Spain, by contrast, has a 70.3% chance of winning Group E.
Regarding the remaining groups, the Netherlands are at 65.9% to top Group C, England are 64.6% in Group D, and Belgium are at 63.5% to win Group B.
As part of its analysis of the tournament, Stats Perform AI revealed that it had simulated the tournament being played over 40,000 times to draw its most accurate prediction on who would win the Henri Delaunay Trophy.
Ahead of next week’s tournament kick-off, Stats Perform AI analysis may soothe bookmaker nerves, who are reporting record bets placed on England winning the tournament – a result that could likely register a record industry payout.
Should Euro 2020 follow script, the AI model has given England a 95.5% chance of ‘reaching the final 16’ as the team’s most likely performance outcome…