Smarkets: Punters’ confidence in Brexit deal slips to 69%

With the deadline for a Brexit deal fast approaching, the possibility of Boris Johnson reaching an agreement with the European Union appears to be slipping away according to Smarkets.

According to the betting exchange, a ‘no deal Brexit’ appears to be more likely with 69% of punters backing the possibility of a trade deal, compared to 90% last week, as bettors lose hope in Johnson’s ‘oven ready deal’.

With fishing, agriculture and the possibility of a 2% drop in the UK’S GDP all still dominating the agenda, talks with the EU have still got a long way to go if any semblance of a deal is to be agreed on. 

Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst, commented: “The chance of a UK-EU trade agreement being struck this year is now around 69% at Smarkets having dropped in recent days after the UK and EU missed yet another deadline in trade talks on Sunday. This is a fast-moving situation, however, as these odds have improved by 24 points this morning alone.

“Regardless of whether a trade deal were to be agreed by both sides, MEPs would not have enough time to approve it, so it is unclear whether EU negotiators will want to agree to a deal before the end of the year – even if only a provisional one – without explicit support from the European Parliament

“Besides Brexit, Boris Johnson is also facing a huge surge in coronavirus infections domestically, with countries in Europe and across the world closing their borders to the UK in response – a potential precursor to the chaos that could await in the event of a no-deal Brexit in January. The problems are piling up for Johnson, who is subsequently now at 37% to leave his post before the end of next year.”

Brexit is not the only challenge that Johnson faces this week, following the news that more than 40 countries have closed their borders to travellers from the UK. 

While this is due to the spread of a new strain of COVID-19, punters’ confidence in Johnson as a leader is also beginning to dwindle as the likelihood of him leaving office before the end of next year has also risen recently, now standing at 37%.

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