Smarkets has revealed that its political markets have been re-energised by the government’s last-minute negotiations to secure a fraught trade deal with the European Union.
This weekend, PM Boris Johnson took charge of negotiations meeting face-to-face with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, in a bid to break the deadlock.
Yet following reports that no progress has been made on the critical sticking points of market concessions, fishing rights, Northern Ireland’s arrangements and level-playing field rules – Smarkets advised that Brexit has become yet another rollercoaster market for political punters.
Last week, odds on Smarkets’ exchange suggested that the UK government held an 85% chance (market price 1.21) of securing trade deal terms before the end of 2020.
But following a weekend a negative headlines, the firm has seen odds drift to1.65 (63% chance) as UK and EU negotiating teams communicated that ‘significant divergences remain’.
As the UK enters its final negotiating window, Smarkets noted that frantic trading on Brexit outcomes has delivered another fluctuating market, mirroring November’s record-breaking US2020 Presidential race.
Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi said: “Smarkets customers have put the likelihood of a trade deal this year at 63% in light of last-minute talks between the UK and the EU. With the issues of a level playing field, fishing quotas, Northern Ireland, and whether the bill will get Labour support, our market is being traded actively on both sides.
“There is seemingly no hope of a trade deal with the US before the New Year, and with the chance of an extension to the transition period at just 14%, a UK-EU deal is arguably now more important than ever.”