Democrats fly high in the polls as Trump’s popularity slumps

Joe Biden’s popularity appears to be riding at an all-time high this week, after betting exchanges have shown the Democrat nominee holds a 2-in-3 chance (66%) of winning the presidency next month.

According to Smarkets, Biden’s likelihood of victory in the US 2020 elections is currently double that of Donald Trump‘s (33%) chances of a second term.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets, commented: “Following a tumultuous first presidential debate last week, the VP debate was eagerly anticipated as an insight into what a second Trump administration or a Biden-Harris one could bring.

“The performances of both candidates last night were in line with expectations and produced no definitive movement at the end of an intense few days of trading on our $10m Next President market.

“However, Biden remains clearly in front and is twice as likely as Trump to win the election in less than four weeks’ time, holding a 2-in-3 chance of victory.

“Aggregating our state-by-state markets, Biden’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen to 324 against Trump’s 214, with the Democratic challenger now favoured once again in the key swing state of Florida. With more and more of our markets suggesting a Biden victory is increasingly likely, his return to the White House looks arguably more assured than ever.”

While bettors did show a hint of confidence in the current President following his discharge from hospital earlier this week, there still appears to be some residual apprehension in the betting markets following POTUS’ first debate with Biden earlier in the week.

Smarkets’ Electoral College forecast has suggested that Biden has climbed to an expected 324 electoral votes, gaining a significant majority on Trump’s 214.

In addition, the former-VP is now the favourite for success in the key swing state of Florida.

Bakhshi added: “With more and more of our markets suggesting a Biden victory is increasingly likely, his return to the White House looks arguably more assured than ever.”

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