Betting exchanges suggest Trump impeachment likely

Following the release of the transcript of Donald Trump’s phone call with the Ukrainian president on Wednesday, betting exchanges are suggesting that impeachment is beginning to look more like reality for the US President

Online betting exchange Smarkets has seen close to £35,000 traded on whether the House of Representatives will submit an article of impeachment against Trump before the end of his term.

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Head of Political Markets at Smarkets, explained: “We have a market on whether the House of Representatives will pass articles of impeachment against Trump, and this was our most traded political market yesterday. The market now makes it a 65% chance to happen during Trump’s first term.

“With the latest revelations on Trump asking Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, it seems the Democrats are finally going to use their majority in the House to push for impeachment. There’s little chance of it succeeding in the Senate, so the move looks likely to be symbolic and perhaps an attempt to cause enough disquiet amongst Republicans to make them consider another candidate for 2020.”

Betfair Exchange, meanwhile, has still tipped Trump as the front runner in the 2020 election with 42.7% betting in favour of a victory. Elizabeth Warren is pitted as the leading democrat at 25%, more than double the implied chances of Joe Biden at 10.4%.

Punters on Betfair’s exchange have suggested that they think it’s unlikely that Trump will depart this year, putting the odds at 14.5 (6.9%), compared with 1.04 (96%) on him departing in 2020 or later. 

Odds of the former-Apprentice host being impeached from Office have dropped slightly dropped in recent days, with Betfair offering 2.24 (44.6%) on him being impeached by the House of Representatives and 1.78 (56.1%) on him not.

With further scrutiny expected, and with Trump’s notorious hot-temper, it’s hard to say how the revelations will play out.