Paddy Power – Tory Rebels gift May a 2018 leadership headache

Conservative ‘Rebel MPs’ have handed Theresa May a significant defeat in Commons, securing a legal amendment guaranteeing a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with the EU.

A beleaguered PM Theresa May, lost the crucial Commons ‘EU Withdrawal Bill’ by just four votes (309 to 305 vote). However, Paddy Power Politics believes that the vote’s consequences may become significant for Theresa May and company in 2018.

Having closed stage 1 of Brexit negotiations this December, settling the UK’s financial commitments, agreeing EU citizens’ rights and settling potential Irish border concerns, the Conservative Government appeared to be finally making progress on Brexit.

However, any festive joy for May has been short-lived as yesterday’s Commons defeat has severely weakened the government’s position as it heads for EU trade talks.

At home, May faces deep Party fractures as Conservative rebels continue to fight hard Brexiters on EU leaving terms and processes. The split has seen, Labour’s support growing both in and out of the Commons, they are now odds-on to gain most seats at the next General Election (8/11) with Paddy Power.

Updating its UK political markets, Paddy Power prices 2018 as 6/4 favourite for next election. Would the Tory Party risk another General Election campaign with PM May as its leader? Paddy Power has shortened Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg to 4/1 to become Tory Headboy.

Furthermore, the bookmaker details that Scottish Conservative Leader, Ruth Davidson, who could be set to run as an MP, has also seen her odds slashed to 10/1 as May’s successor.

Paddy Power

Paddy Power are also odds-on that more than one PM will be involved in the Brexit negotiations before the deadline (4/11), and are as short as 3/1 that a deal will not be reached in time.

Spokesman Paddy Power said: “The government’s defeat in the House of Commons puts the brakes on the Brexit bus, just as it’d got out of first gear.

“For Theresa May, it could be the end of her stint in the driving seat – after all, it’s dangerous to drive in kitten heels, and she looks like she could do with a long old nap in the back.”

Heading into the Christmas break, Paddy Power quotes 12/1 that a second EU Referendum will be held by then, and 50/1 that May performs a EU-turn and decides to Remain.

Paddy Power Brexit Update
4/11       More than one PM to be involved in Brexit negotiations before April 1st 2019
8/11       Labour to win most seats at the next UK General Election
6/4         Next UK General Election to take place in 2018
3/1         No Brexit deal to be reached by the deadline
12/1       Second EU Referendum to be held before April 1st 2019
50/1       Theresa May to announce that the UK will remain in the EU

Next Conservative Leader
4/1         Jacob Rees-Mogg
9/2         David Davis
6/1         Boris Johnson
9/1         Amber Rudd
10/1       Andrea Leadsom
10/1       Ruth Davidson
12/1       Michael Gove

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