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Spreadex’s Andy MacKenzie tells SBC readers where to find the best value for this summer’s Ashes series….
The sun may be shining but it’s still time for some serious sledging. I refer of course to the summer, cricketing kind rather than the winter downhill variety as the Aussies come to town; brash, rash and hoping to thrash England once again.
The Mitchell Johnson-inspired Baggy Greens of course smashed Alastair Cook and co 5-0 last time out Down Under. But a gloriously entertaining recent series against New Zealand has given England hope that they can make this series against the Aussies slightly more competitive. So where have spread betters been putting their money and what have been the most popular Ashes series bets from Spreadex clients?
Outright Winners
England’s improved showing against New Zealand seems to have produced some confidence from patriotic punters as we’ve seen money coming in backing England to put up something of a fight against Michael Clarke’s men.
Spreadex’s Series Index market spreads are based on each side getting 25 points for winning a Test match and 10 for a draw.
England are pitched at 40 – 44 and Australia 75 – 79. And so far we’ve seen money buying England at 44, meaning clients think England could get either at least two Test wins or a win and three draws from the series.
We’ve also seen more money selling the Aussies at 75 meaning clients are betting on the visitors getting less than three wins from the series.
In terms of the overall outcome from the series, the support for the hosts has seen England’s Series Winner fixed odds price shorten from 4/1 to 7/2 but the Aussies remain firm favourites to win at 2/5 and even if the series is drawn Australia would still retain the Ashes – Australia to Retain the Ashes either by winning or drawing the series is a 1/5 shot on the fixed odds.
Series Runs, number of 6s and 4s
With the recent run-fest against New Zealand perhaps in mind, the Spreadex traders have pitched Total Series Runs for the five Tests at 5,925 – 6,075. This is suggesting a higher final total of runs (this is a mid-point of exactly 6,000) than any of the last eight Ashes series. The previous highest run total since 2001 was 5,827 in 2002/03.
This hasn’t stopped spread betters piling in to buy runs however so if these bets are anything to go by, this series should at least provide plenty of entertainment from the bat.
Spreadex clients think Australia will provide most of these runs as we’ve had more buyers than sellers so far with the current spread at 3,025 – 3,125 while punters have been more bearish on England runs with more sellers so far and with the current England Series Runs spread at 2,875 – 2,975.
Series 6s are priced at 44 – 46 (there have twice been more than this number of sixes posted in total in the last eight Ashes series; 51 in 2005 and 65 in 2013-14) and Series 4s are quoted at 715 – 735 (the highest number of total fours recorded in Ashes series since the turn of the millennium is 705 in 2009).
Batsmen Runs
So if total runs, fours and sixes are being pitched high then where are they going to come from? In terms of Batsmen Series Runs, Australia’s Steven Smith is leading the charge with a quote of 445 – 465 ahead of David Warner on 435 – 455, however Spreadex clients don’t seem convinced by these quotes and have been selling on these prices by and large.
England’s highest priced batsmen is Joe Root on 400 – 420. Root was impressive in the first Test against New Zealand at Lord’s posting 98 and 84 in England’s 124-run win but then scoring just one run in two innings in the second Test in Headingley in the visitors’ 199-run win. Spreadex clients have been obviously thinking more about his first Test performance though with more buyers of the 24-year-old’s runs in total.
Root, Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler were all among the runs of course in England’s entertaining One Day series win against New Zealand so there will be some pressure on those who were not involved in the One Day team, such as Cook, Adam Lyth and Gary Balance, to perform.
It’s perhaps for this reason that we’ve seen sellers of Cook, Lyth and also Ian Bell runs at current quotes of 380 – 400, 300 – 320 and 355 – 375 respectively. Elsewhere, Spreadex punters obviously feel that the lower order can have a part to play in this series and we’ve seen buyers of Stuart Broad and Josh Hazlewood runs at quotes of 110 – 120 and 76 – 84 respectively.
- Bowlers to look out for
The bets outlined so far suggest it could be a struggle for the bowlers. But if someone is going to shine with the ball, who is it likely to be?
The spreads point straight to Australia’s two Mitchells – Starc and Johnson – as the men to watch. Spreadex’s Bowler Series Index awards players 10 points per wicket taken in a Test with a bonus of 25 points for a five-wicket haul in an innings. Note that the spreads also include an allocation per player if they don’t play in any Test.
Starc is pitched slightly higher than Johnson with a spread of 245 – 255 compared to 240 – 250. Some may find this slightly surprising given Johnson’s destructive performance last time out in Australia’s 5-0 whitewash Down Under, but the 33-year-old has struggled to hold down consistent form in the past six months and has struggled with pace.
Spreadex clients also don’t seem convinced that the moustachioed maestro can repeat his heroics of 18 months ago and have been selling him on the index, while Starc’s higher spread hasn’t put off punters from getting stuck into his spread in anticipation of some devastation from the left-arm paceman.
However, there have been plenty of buyers elsewhere with spinner Hazlewood – often talked of as the Australian’s weak link – again peaking interest among customers on a spread of 225 – 235 and Mark Wood also attracting buyers on a spread of 172 – 182.
