Betfair release % chance charts on Scottish Referendum outcome


On 18 September, Scotland’s voters will decide whether to stay part of the United Kingdom or go it alone. Betfair’s political trading desk has released a set of charts monitoring % chance of the Scottish Referendum’s Yes and No campaigns.

The charts published by Betfair’s Exchange demonstrate the implied % chance of each voting outcome.

Betfair’s Exchange has so far matched £5.2 million between customers.  For the Yes vote Betfair’s political desk noted that it had matched odds between 7.0 and 7.6 (around 6/1 or 13/2) as recently as between August 7 – August 26 for about £50,000

The operator noted that it had witnessed an acceleration in trading volumes around the Yes Price this week, however the majority of market trading has been placed on the “No Vote”.

The No vote had reached its highest price this week, offering 1.44 (1/2)  on the No campaign winning.

Betfair’s political desk commented that their charts demonstrate a more polarised betting support behind No than is visible in the YouGov opinion polls which have the No Vote ahead at 53% to the Yes Votes 47%

At Present Betfair market odds stand as follows


% chance No


% chance Yes


% Chance Timeline



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