Betfair’s ‘Brexit’ market has exploded into life this week with just under £4m matched between customers in the last seven days, bringing the total traded in the market to £8m.
‘Remain’ has been backed into a heavy 2/5 favourite, with odds implying a 71% chance to win, whereas Brexit has weakened to a 12/5 outsider representing a 29% chance to win. In fact, 69% of trades are on Remain, with the biggest standing to win £200,000 should the UK vote to stay in the EU.
The catalyst to recent activity has been the visit of Barack Obama, as the US President’s comments about Britain’s weaker position outside of Europe led to a flurry of trading last weekend. This momentum has continued this week with several big individual trades of up to £315,000 being placed by customers via Betfair’s brokerage team.
At its current rate, the market could beat Betfair’s previous traded volume for a single political event, which was £40m for the 2012 US Presidential Election. The current odds of “Remain” mirror those of the eventual “No” vote in the Scottish Referendum at a similar stage.
Naomi Totten, Spokesperson for Betfair, said: “Remain was already a strong favourite before Barack Obama’s visit, implying a 66% chance to win, but his comments sparked another wave of trading over the weekend with Remain backed as low as 1/3, which implies a 75% chance.
“The level of interest is unprecedented; it’s seen six-times more trading than the Scottish referendum at a similar point, and we’re seeing a steady stream of big punters requesting six-figure trades from our brokerage team.
“As it stands, the market could eclipse Betfair’s [£40m] record for traded volume for a single political market. We’ve seen £8m matched to date and trading typically accelerates much closer to the event.”
EU Referendum Result
- In favour of staying in EU
- 1.4 (2/5) or a 71% likelihood
- In favour of leaving EU
- 3.4 (12/5) or a 29% likelihood