Copyright: bowie15 / 123RF Stock Photo

Betting on transfers in January – Rumour has it…

Will Rooney be joining Oscar in China? Is Depay set to depart Old Trafford too? Has Gerard Deulofeu had enough of life at Goodison Park? Rumours, rumours, rumours. We’ve no idea but if you think you do, whether it’s gut feeling or you know something we don’t, you can be rest assured you bet on it.

With rumours and transfer ‘news’ intensifying in January, bookmakers are never far behind and ‘Next Club’ type markets are now commonplace. We spoke to the bookies about the popularity of transfers betting, and how they price and promote them.

Sky Bet’s Head of PR Sandro di Michele, BetVictor Head of Comms Charlie McCann and Betway’s Alan Alger were kind enough to give us their thoughts.

SBC News Betting on transfers in January - Rumour has it...
Sandro di Michele, Sky Bet

SBC: How much betting volume does the transfer window bring in…are there more or less wagers than in the past with the impact of online rumours and ‘fake news’? 

Sandro: The volume of business brought in during transfer windows is directly related to the amount of activity by clubs in the window. If we see a lot of clubs signing players this quite often create a chain reaction and we then see an increase in customer interest and in turn stakes.

Charlie: The volume is not particularly high; these markets are not meant to bring in huge volumes but they are meant to meet the needs of our customers, we need to be flexible but we also need to keep abreast of all online rumours and differentiate between sources.

Some of these markets are fascinating e.g. (at the time of writing) Jose Fonte has handed in a transfer request at St Mary’s – he is 12/1 to join the Chinese exodus, Memphis Depay is 5/2 to join fellow Dutchman Ronald Koeman at Everton.

They are fun markets that the new breed of football bettor, often fuelled by social media, expects from their bookmaker of choice – but it would be naive to think they bring in high volumes.

Alan: Wagers placed on transfers to take place can be lumpy. We’ve had a number of telling bets over the years from notable accounts and our traders have to be on red alert during the windows. The number of sources pumping out transfer talk has risen significantly over the past few years, and we’ve certainly seen the betting on our markets rise too.

Whilst they don’t rival your big weekend football matches, punters seem to always be sniffing around for big odds and they’re certainly available in transfer betting.

SBC: How much impact does social media chatter have on the odds? 

SBC News Betting on transfers in January - Rumour has it...
Charlie McCann, BetVictor

Sandro: We have an awareness of what is happening on social media and pay attention to what we deem to be informed accounts. We are however a bookmaker and we will always pay far more attention to weight of money, volume of bets and informed business.

Charlie: I would suggest that local and national media reports fuel social media chatter. We all like to think our own club are on the brink of signing the next Messi so when a media agency speculates that a particular club is keen on signing a player social media is awash and we get inundated with enquiries asking to create a market for X to join Y.

Media outlets must fill pages/websites and their own social media handles; the majority is hot air but you will often find a gem. We must of course keep abreast of all social media chatter and other legitimate media outlets such as the transfer news feature on Sky Sports News is closely monitored. We often get requests from customers asking for a particular market; our job is to make sure there is sufficient demand for the market and competition for the signature. For example, if we get a request to add a market we must first decide that a deal hasn’t already been done.

In many instances the customer or potential customer knows more than we do. In other instances they think they know more than we do; why else would you have the bet?

Alan: There are certain sources that could be deemed more reliable than others, but we’d still be likely to see if the money pours in before acting rashly on rumours.

Of course, when punters start to believe the hype then it feeds through to us. The Antonio Conte story was a particularly good example. We were forced to suspend betting on the Italian being sacked back in October, after media leaks led to a string of solid bets forced us to review our offerings. As it turned out, the cash was kept in our satchel thanks to Alan Pardew settling the market by getting the boot before Christmas!

SBC: What way can you best promote these markets? 

SBC News Betting on transfers in January - Rumour has it...
Alan Alger, Betway

Sandro: We generally provide a service with our transfer markets and allow the public to talk about our prices which sometimes organically promotes them. Journalists and broadcasters will sometimes quote our prices on very high profile transfers, but the key thing to remember is that we offer all possible outcomes including the player to stay at their current club which isn’t the case with all bookmakers.

Alan: We are regularly updating the media with the latest betting news on our transfer markets, as well as flagging any newsworthy markets with our followers across the social platforms.

SBC: Biggest hit you’ve taken or heard of on a transfer?

Alan: Ibrahimovic moving to Manchester United was a bit of stinger. The big Swede was well rumoured for many months in the build up to the transfer and we maybe kept his price a little too big for too long.

One particular customer seems to have a good insight into the goings on at Arsenal and has hit us on three of their recent high-profile transfers. He was even on Jamie Vardy to join the club before the rumours surfaced and if sources are to be believed only narrowly missed out on a payday there too.

Check Also

Super Group

Super Group FY2023 dragged by costly US impairments

Super Group states that it has overcome a challenging 2023, in which its corporate performance …

SBC News Sky Bet expands FTP suite with Incentive Games

Sky Bet expands FTP suite with Incentive Games

Sky Bet has linked with Incentive Games, as the operator looks to tap into the igaming …

SBC News Twenty3 announces Sky Bet as latest Toolbox customer

Twenty3 announces Sky Bet as latest Toolbox customer

Sports data intelligence firm Twenty3 has signed a new partnership with Sky Bet to become …