With David Cameron confirming that the EU Referendum will take place as expected in June, on June 23rd to be precise, and with a reported 40% of voters still undecided, the bookmakers are predicting a flurry of betting on the event.
Mayor of London Boris Johnson announced at the weekend that “after a huge amount of heartache” he has opted to campaign for Britain to leave the EU.
This means that he opposes Cameron, and is believed to have been a significant blow to the Prime Minister. To add insult to injury Boris Johnson is now a strong favourite to succeed him as PM, Betfair has both Johnson and Osborne at 5/2 to be the next Prime Minister.
The Betfair Predicts site is, at the time of writing, predicting a 67% chance that people will vote in favour of remaining in the EU.
William Hill meanwhile is predicting that betting on the outcome of the EU Referendum will outstrip that on the Scottish Referendum to make it the biggest political betting event of all time. The Scottish Referendum garnered a lot of betting interest and with the media storm which will accompany the months until June 23rd, this one is expected to see even more wagers placed.
William Hill spokesperson Graham Sharpe said: “Mr.Cameron may see the Referendum as a big gamble – and he is 7/1 to stand down as Tory leader during 2016, which he will come under pressure to do if the vote is to leave – but bookies will see it as perhaps the biggest ever political gamble.”
He added: “Over £10 million was gambled on the outcome of the Scottish Referendum, during the course of which one of our clients staked a world record political wager of £900,000 and called it right, collecting a payout of £1,093,333.33- the client is still considering whether to make another hefty wager on the outcome of the EU Referendum.”
There is a somewhat surprising array of bets available for the Referendum and William Hill is currently offering odds of 2/5 that the Referendum will produce a Remain outcome, and 7/4 for Leave. In regard to overall voter turnout, the current price is 10/11 that it will be 68% or greater, and 10/11 that it will be Under 68%.
The bookmaker is also offerings odds of 5/6 that the Remain vote will be 55% or greater; and 5/6 that it will be Under 55%.