The majority of UK bookmakers have today suspended markets on a ‘vote of no confidence’ taking place on Theresa May’s party leadership.
Following a frantic 24-hours of trading, triggered by the abrupt departure of Dominic Raab as lead Brexit negotiator – who stated that he could not support May’s draft EU-withdrawal agreement, bookmakers’ have suspended a no-confidence motion.
This morning, new sources report that so far 21 Conservative MPs have sent ‘letters of no confidence’ to Sir Graham Brady’s Conservative Committee.
Conservative Party rules mandate that 15% of MPs (in this case 48), must support a ‘no confidence’ motion in order to trigger a vote on party leadership.
Paddy Power Politics made the decision to suspend betting on the vote following ‘heavy, continued betting on the outcome’, as market odds had fallen from odds-on 1/3 to 1/10 before 10am (Friday), and had been slashed from as high as 5/2 earlier this week.
Nevertheless, should the vote happen, Paddy Power has moved to price Theresa at ‘odds-on 1/2’ to secure a confidence approval, as opposed to 6/4 for her to lose, warning Brexiters to be careful of what they wish for.
Updating the media, politics spokesman Paddy Power said: “With letters flying in from disillusioned Tory lawmakers, we’ve been forced to completely stop taking bets on a vote of no confidence taking place against the Prime Minister.
“However, we are seeing continued support on May to win the vote should it go ahead, in fact a win is rated over 25% more likely than a loss at this stage.”
Paddy Power – Vote of No Confidence Markets :
- 1/10 A vote of no confidence to happen (now suspended)
- 1/2 May to win a vote of no confidence
- 6/4 May to lose a vote of no confidence
Paddy Power – Next Conservative Leader:
- 9/2 -Dominic Raab
- 11/2 – Sajid Javid
- 6/1 -Boris Johnson
- 6/1 -Michael Gove
- 7/1 – Jeremy Hunt
- 9/1 -Jacob Rees-Mogg
- 9/1 -David Davis
- 16/1 – Penny Mourdaunt