Triggered Article 50 changes UK political betting dynamics

Having triggered Article 50 which begins the process of withdrawal from the European Union, the UK now enters an unprecedented cycle in its politics, with Brexit negotiations likely to dominate all political agenda and discussion.

Following PM Theresa May’s official triggering of Article 50 on the 29 March, all bookmakers have updated their respective political markets as the Conservative government states that there will be ‘no return to the EU’.

UK Political context  is now focused on whether the government can fulfill its 2-year negotiation mandate, and successfully extract the country from the EU with a functional deal with its biggest trading partner.

Updating its political markets, William Hill has priced 2/7 (78% chance) that Britain will officially leave the EU in 2019. William Hill politics offer 9/2 that it will happen earlier, in 2018 or before, and 5/1 that it will take longer than expected, happening in 2020 or later.

‘Although 2019 may look a shoo-in, this process has never happened before so there is every possibility it may be over surprisingly quickly, or negotiations may become  unexpectedly lengthily.’ commented William Hill politics spokesman Graham Sharpe

Meanwhile, competitor Betfair has chosen to focus on Brexit’s impact on the frosty relationship between Scotland and the UK.

Betfair politics details that the chances of a Scottish independence referendum being held before 2019 are just 17% – down from 60% after the Brexit vote according to the latest Betfair Exchange odds on the day Article 50 was delivered.

The bookmaker notes that SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has made a convincing case for a second ‘IndyRef’ in recent months, pointing to the fact that the majority of Scots voted to Remain on June 23, and the Exchange made it a 4/6 chance in the wake of the vote.

Naomi Totten, Spokesperson for Betfair commented on the market  “Now that Britain is committed to the process of leaving the EU, Nicola Sturgeon is pushing hard for another referendum to give Scottish people a chance to decide if it wants to be part of a post-Brexit Britain but the odds of another IndyRef occurring before 2019 have drifted and there’s now an 86% chance that Scotland will not get to decide on its future before 2019.”

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