Betfair targets + £100 million US Election trading

us2016

While Hillary Clinton remains a clear favourite to win the 2016 US Election, trading at 1.21 on the Betfair Exchange (82% chance of winning). Betfair today revealed that the Democrats are faltering in the key ‘swing states’ of Florida, Iowa and Ohio.

Detailing market insight on individual state outcomes, Betfair’s trading team revealed that the Democrats have seemingly lost their strong hold in Florida with the Republicans shortening from 4.0 to 2.82.

Furthermore, the operator revealed that in Iowa the odds have flipped entirely with the Republicans backed as 1.87 favourite whilst the Democrats now trade at 2.12. Key ‘rust belt’ state Ohio, has drifted back towards the Republican Party’s favour, which now trades at evens with just ten days to go until the US Election Day (8 November).

Updating the media, Betfair revealed that it expects to record + £100 million wagers on the ‘2016 US Election’, with the market trading ‘well over £1 million a day’.

Barry Orr, Head of Media Relations for Betfair, commented on the market

“Political markets tend to see a huge spike in activity in the week building up to the event so this market will easily break the £100m market. The peripheral markets such as the individual state voting markets are also picking up in popularity with Iowa, Florida and Ohio of particular interest to punters.”

“The odds for Trump and Clinton aren’t as close as they were for Leave and Remain in the £127m Brexit market which broke the record for the biggest betting market in Betfair Exchange history. But there is still money pouring in for both candidates with Trump being backed into 5.5 on Thursday, his lowest price since the second live debate.”

Betfair – 2016 US Election Breakdown (28 October)

Next President

  • Hillary Clinton           1.21 (1/5 or 83% chance)
  • Donald Trump          5.9 (5/1 or 17% chance)

State Voting

Florida

  • Democrats     1.54 (8/15 or 65% chance)
  • Republicans   2.82 (9/5 or 35% chance)

Ohio

  • Democrats     1.96 (20/21 or 51% chance)
  • Republican     1.99 (EVS or 50% chance)

Pennsylvania

  • Democrats     1.2 (1/5 or 83% chance)
  • Republicans   5.6 (9/2 or 18% chance)

North Carolina

  • Democrats     1.37 (4/11 or 73% chance)
  • Republicans   3.55 (5/2 or 28% chance)

Michigan

  • Democrats     1.1 (1/10 or 90% chance)
  • Republican     10.0 (9/1 or 10% chance)

Nevada

  • Democrats     1.37 (4/11 or 73% chance)
  • Republican     3.6 (13/5 or 28% chance)

Colorado

  • Democrats     1.12 (1/8 or 89% chance)
  • Republican     8.8 (8/1 or 11% chance)

 Iowa

  • Democrats     2.12 (11/10 or 47% chance)
  • Republican     1.87 (5/6 or 53% chance)

New Hampshire

  • Democrats     1.21 (1/5 or 83% chance)
  • Republican     5.5 (9/2 or 18% chance)

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