The new Premier League campaign is up and running this weekend, just 70 days after the last season ended – but where are the big hitting spread betters putting their money?
Spreadex clients have been piling in with their pre-season bets and the Premier Points Prediction markets give a great indication of how punters are expecting each team to fare this season.
This works by Spreadex traders giving a prediction or ‘spread’ of how many points they think each team will end up with come May 2016. Clients can then either buy if they think the team will do better than the prediction, or sell, if they think the team will do worse than expected.
So which teams are punters getting with and which sides are they getting against, read on to get the full team-by-team lowdown of where the money is going, here is the Spreadex season 2015/2016 lowdown:-
OK you didn’t have to read for long to find out who Spreadex clients are really getting with this season; yep, the Gunners.
The money has been flooding in for Arsene Wenger’s men even well before their 1-0 Community Shield victory over champions Chelsea. In fact sellers have been conspicuous only by their absence.
Petr Cech may be Arsenal’s only summer signing so far, but this hasn’t deterred spread betters who have been buying big time on the Gunners getting 79 points or higher.
A first title for Wenger in 12 years? Spread betters certainly seem to think that’s a big possibility this term.
Christian Benteke and Fabian Delph have gone leading to general doom and gloom and pessimism in the press surrounding Villa’s chances this season.
However, spread betters have not been quite so downbeat. Granted there have been sellers, and quite a few of them, but there has in fact been more money buying on Villa’s performance this season.
Can Tim Sherwood’s raid on the French league keep the Villains up this season? Spreadex clients seem to think so. Just.
The Cherries won the Championship in style under Eddie Howe last season (although they did have to rely on Watford slipping up on the final day to take the title) and pundits have been purring about Bournemouth’s style of play since then.
Spreadex clients seem to share this sense of optimism and again we’ve seen some big money coming in on the south-coast outfit with sellers very much in the minority.
Based on this, spread betters seem to think Bournemouth will sail past the 40 point mark and moor themselves firmly in the top flight for another season at least.
They are the champions, of course, and the favourites again in the eyes of the Spreadex traders with the highest predicted points haul for the forthcoming campaign.
However, Spreadex clients have been lukewarm on the Blues perhaps due to the niggling injury concerns over Diego Costa and question marks still remaining over loanee Radamel Falcao.
The buyers have very slightly outweighed the sellers so far, but only just, suggesting the 82 or 83 points mark will be about Chelsea’s level this season. Enough to crown them champions again? It could be a close call.
Behind Arsenal, Crystal Palace are the team we’ve seen the most money coming in on during the pre-season.
Palace have made their intentions known with the big money signings of Yohan Cabaye and Connor Wickham and the loan capture of Patrick Bamford and Spreadex clients have been piling in, betting on Alan Pardew’s men to land more than 48 points this season.
Again sellers of the Eagles have been few and far between suggesting the south London club will be flapping their wings and soaring towards a top 10 finish at least.
There has been little transfer activity around Goodison Park with the main focus seemingly being on keeping hold of John Stones rather than bringing in new faces.
Spreadex clients seem to have mixed views on how the Toffees will do this season with buyers and sellers placing their bets in more or less equal measure.
This suggests 54 points could well be the marker for Roberto Martinez – but if this is the case it represents an improvement on last season’s disappointing 47 point haul and a likely top half finish.
Spread betters don’t fancy Leicester’s chances this season. It’s been a steady flow of sellers coming on this particular market so far at Spreadex with only a few brave buyers swimming against the tide.
Nigel Pearson’s controversial sacking to make way for Claudio Ranieri hasn’t impressed fans, pundits or spread betters alike and with the vast majority of spread punters not expecting the Foxes to make 40 points that can surely only spell one thing – relegation.
Liverpool have spent big this season. Again. Christian Benteke, Roberto Firmino and Danny Ings are all in, giving Brendan Rodgers a myriad of striking options.
However, Spreadex clients don’t seem hugely convinced that the Reds can rediscover their form of the season before last, which saw them agonisingly fall short of Manchester City.
Buyers are definitely in the ascendancy, indicating Spreadex clients think Liverpool will end up with more than 67 points come May, but these have tended to be smaller stakes and not matching the more confident chunky bets that have been coming in on Arsenal, Palace and Bournemouth.
Based on this logic, it seems a top four finish may be just too much for Liverpool again this season.
Manuel Pellegrini cannot afford another trophyless season if he is to remain in charge at the Etihad beyond this campaign – however, Spreadex clients are betting against City winning back the title.
The signings of Raheem Sterling and Fabian Delph have not inspired spread betters, who seem to be only able to see a downside on the Citizens’ predicted points haul.
It’s been a case of sellers galore at 80 points suggesting City will be looking at a third place finish at best.
Season Points bets on Manchester United’s forthcoming league performance has always been one of the most popular bets at Spreadex – however this year other clubs have been attracting far more interest.
This means that either punters are unsure of exactly how the Red Devils will fare this season given their lack of options up front, or that the Spreadex traders have got the spread spot on.
Still there have been slightly more buyers than sellers indicating punters who have played this market think Louis van Gaal will improve on last season’s 70 points and perhaps even snag a top three finish from their city rivals.
There’s no getting away from it, the Magpies were a laughing stock in the second-half of last season. A team in disarray. A complete shambles.
However, spread betters are expecting something far different this season under Steve McClaren, who has splashed Mike Ashley’s cash on Georginio Wijnaldum and Aleksandar Mitrovic.
This has been one of the more popular team markets among Spreadex clients, with a strong bias of buyers suggesting the Toon should be safely end in mid-table, if not higher.
Alex Neil worked wonders to get Norwich promoted last season after arriving as a virtual unknown from Hamilton Academicals.
The Scot has been economical in his transfer dealings since the play-off final victory over Middlesbrough, however, this hasn’t put off spread betters who have been pretty chirpy over the Canaries’ prospects this term.
Spreadex clients have been flocking to peck at our points quote and buyers have been comfortably in the ascendancy suggesting Norwich will feather more than 39 points this season, which could be enough to see Neil’s men home to roost in the top flight for another season.
Just like last season, Ronald Koeman has had to contend with some star names departing St Mary’s.
And, again just like last season, spread betters have been quick to sell on the Saints’ proposed points total. In fact, selling in their droves.
We all know what happened last season as Southampton defied the spreads to end in a comfortable seventh position on 60 points.
However, if the strong selling at 55 shown by spread betters this season does prove to be correct, it could mean Koeman’s side falling back to a mid-table finish this term.
Stoke have finished ninth in the table for the past two seasons in succession with points hauls of 50 and 54 respectively and Spreadex clients expect more of the same. If not better.
Mark Hughes has had to contend with the loss of two of his top performers from last term as Asmir Begovic and Steven N’Zonzi have moved to pastures new.
However, this hasn’t put off spread betters and buyers have most definitely been on top, backing the Potters to again get at least 50 points or higher, which would see Mark Hughes’ side end comfortably in the top half of the table once more.
After three miraculous escapes from relegation in the past three seasons, The Black Cats are again tipped by the Spreadex traders to be once more among the pack battling for survival.
Dick Advocaat has stayed on after saving Sunderland from the drop last term. But the same approach for Paulo di Canio and Gus Poyet hasn’t really worked for the Stadium of Light side in the past.
There hasn’t been a great deal of money coming in on Sunderland’s points spread in comparison to the other clubs, again suggesting that perhaps our traders’ 38 to 39 mark prediction is about right. If this is the case it could finally be “bye bye Sunderland”.
Garry Monk’s first full season in charge was impressive to say the least as the Swans finished eighth on 56 points, comfortably coping with the loss of leading scorer Wilfried Bony.
Spreadex’s traders don’t think it will be quite as successful this time around though, pitching their expected points haul at around 46.
And Spreadex punters have been even less optimistic, with the majority selling at 45 indicating it could be a lower-mid table finish for the south Wales team.
Spurs were heavily reliant on free-scoring Harry Kane last season as they ended fifth on 64 points.
And as long as the England man doesn’t lose his finishing touch, it appears the Lillywhites are in for a similar campaign this time around.
Spread betters have been more mixed here, but buyers are slightly outweighing the sellers, which implies many seem to have last term’s 64 point haul in mind.
With Liverpool expected to push on this term, this may only be good enough for a top six finish for Spurs this time though.
It’s perhaps hard to know what to expect from Watford this term given they have changed their manager and made a number of new signings.
The Spreadex traders have pitched the Hornets’ points quote very low suggesting relegation is a certainty.
However, spread betters, perhaps seeing little downside, have been swarming to buy at 35.5.
So while this suggests punters feel Watford will get 36 points or more this term, does it mean they think they’ll avoid the drop? Probably not.
Tony Pulis last season turned the Baggies from relegation possibilities into a comfortable mid-table outfit and Spreadex clients don’t think there is any danger of West Brom facing a battle against the drop this term.
Clients have been steadily buying on the Baggies’ spread suggesting Pulis will help his side gather 43 points or more and more than likely building on last year’s 13th place finish on 44 points.
West Ham fans got their wish at the end of last season as Sam Allardyce was ousted and in came former player Slaven Bilic.
The Hammers’ pre-season has not been encouraging with the Europa League already causing problems in Bilic’s preparations.
The Spreadex traders have predicted West Ham’s points total to come in lower than last term’s 47 total – and spread betters have still been largely selling more than they’ve been buying suggesting the Irons may end up uncomfortably close to the relegation places.