This week’s Bet Advisor interview is with Tennis tipster Fabian Esguerra, who has been climbing up the Bet Advisor tables steadily. Fabian details his tennis betting strategy, and where he seeks value in this increasingly popular market.
SBC: How did you first get into sports betting?
Fabian: Since I was very young I’ve been a follower of sports and of course I cannot remember when I first filled in football pools. But in the current format Ive been betting since 2004.
SBC: At what point did you realize that you can make some real money from sports betting?
Fabian: My business background helped me to realize that betting markets are often not moved by the so-called ‘smart money’ but are pushed by information that is not relevant and sometimes leads to a snowball effect. I found it profitable exploiting this fact.
SBC: How did you come to select tennis as your chosen sport?
Fabian: In tennis, as an individual sport, you can concentrate all the variables on a single athlete which is more of a complication in team sports. It is also true that the professional bettor sometimes has difficulty balancing their work and personal/family life. Unlike other sports, in tennis, activity usually decreases at the weekends which makes it easier to share your time.
SBC: Are there any particular events that you look forward to throughout the year?
Fabian: Not really. A good tennis bettor must be ready to find the opportunities on a daily basis. Of course the major events (the Grand Slams) are the tournaments that attract more attention but they are also the trickiest ones because they are played in a five set format. That completely changes the balance between favorites and underdogs and, therefore, these tournaments should be approached with care.
SBC: What was your best ever bet?
Fabian: I would like to be defined by a trajectory although of course I have won some big-odds bets. However I am always proud when I´m able to rate correctly the level of a player who comes from the minor tours and enters the main tour. It gives you one or two profitable weeks of advantage until everybody else becomes aware.
SBC: What kind of factors do you evaluate before making a selection?
Fabian: I work with two main concepts which are the potential level and the expected level of the players. The first one is affected by the usual factors (form, rivalry, surface …) to produce the second one. I try to evaluate the differences using the relevant indicators I collect in my own database. I always try to work with long values to aspire to a good yield that allows us to cope with bad streaks.
SBC: What has been the biggest influence on your betting career?
My academic training (business administration) has made me aware of the importance of having good statistical knowledge. Also, I have read tons of books focused on betting and some of them have left their mark.
SBC: Do you have any future plans in regards to your service?
Fabian: Yes. Until now most of my selections have come from the main tour (ATP tour) but once the challenger matches became more regular with Pinnacle offering reasonable limits, I studied the convenience of taking some bets on that tour. Of course I´m not interested in inflating the yield and so the stakes will be related to the market limits. I intend to increase the rotation of the bank and allow the clients to begin to know new players and rely on them.
SBC: What has been the biggest challenge you’ve faced in your betting career?
Fabian: Keeping profitable in shorter periods. Of course the goals are marked on the medium (month) and long (season) term. But sometimes that is not enough for the clients to believe. Depending on the number of the bets taken, making profits over a fortnight or a week is essential in preventing the bank fluctuating beyond what you or your clients are able to assume without panicking. Being careful with the short periods has allowed me to be profitable in each of the months in the past season.
SBC: How do you balance your betting time and family life?
Fabian: As I mentioned above, the fact that activity in tennis usually decreases at the weekends helps me to share my time with family and friends. Also the launch of my tennis database (a long project) helped me a lot. Now I can access at a glance volumes of information that had previously cost me significant time to collect. I’ve become more productive.
SBC: How do you keep calm when you hit a run of losing bets?
Fabian: Past experiences help me to keep calm. My staking plan has been seriously studied and oriented to prevent serious losses in the bank even in long bad streaks. Stability of the bank is one of my obsessions. Checking the graphics in past bad streaks allow me to realize what to expect in a current one
SBC: How do you organize your bank management?
Fabian: I divide my bank among the different sports or tipsters. I evaluate the longest drawdowns occured in the past and try to establish a security margin (normally double the drawdown) depending on the size of a sample we have. The shorter the size of the sample, the longer the security margin. This is more or less the SBC style.
SBC: What is the best reason you could give to anyone who was thinking about following your service?
Fabian: We are all tired hearing about services which take betting as a investment, only to discover that fluctuations in the bank are more of a kind of lottery. Profit is important but how you get to that profit in terms of stability of the bank is crucial. Most of the time that makes the difference between giving up on a tipster or keeping him on, even in a bad streak. My staking plan, recommended bank or odds range make part of a whole which is oriented to avoid the client suffering frights.. The volume of selections expected for the new season (25-30 per month at least) is perfectly manageable and even with the continental changes I am very careful with the times at which the bets are placed.
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