SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
2015 has not been kind to UK bookmaker’s ambitions to be the best political indicator, as for the second time this year betting markets have failed to call a political outcome correctly.
Last week UK bookmakers favoured a YES verdict on Sunday’s Greek referendum. A confident Paddy Power who had offered 2/7 for a Greek Yes, announced that it paid out a ‘five figures’ four days early as the bookmaker withdrew its political market.
However Sunday’s referendum saw a lopsided 61% Greek NO vote win, shattering the bookmaker’s early pay-out.
A Paddy Power statement sent to financial news source Bloomberg.com would read “My Bad”. The Irish bookmaker claimed that it “got a little overexcited” in paying out and that “Paddy Power is feeling a little red faced this morning after calling the Greek referendum wildly wrong.”
The outcome of the Greek referendum, represents another slip for bookmakers political forecasting. In April/May bookmakers had forecasted a Labour-SNP hung Parliament to win the UK General Election.
Furthermore UK bookmakers had been wide-off the mark with the results of the Scottish Independence referendum held in September 2014.
Nevertheless bookmakers can take heart from political polling and research firms, who are being lambasted for failing to call the Greek referendum correctly and providing adequate forecasting data.
