SBC News Voice of the Sports Betting Industry
Team SBC & Bet Advisor caught up with Mike Holden to discuss his football betting strategies and tips which have seen Mike climb up the Bet Advisor form table and generate 16.64% winning yield. Mike is quickly becoming one of Bet Advisors most followed tipsters
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SBC: How did you first get into sports betting ?
MH: I placed my first bet in 1988, aged 13 – an eight-team 50p accumulator in my local Ladbrokes, no questions asked. The only real surprise was that I’d waited so long. Looking back, it was inevitable I’d be a punter. I spent much of my childhood playing a dice-based football game that I invented to cure my boredom on rainy days stuck indoors. Teams would be handicapped on reputation, so outcomes were very realistic. For someone barely out of nappies, it became a very sophisticated pastime – my own little Monte Carlo generator.
SBC: At what point did you realise you can make some real money from sports betting?
MH:The internet changed everything. The opportunity to bet tax-free singles was sensational, and consequently the time I spent on research doubled overnight. The early 2000s were such an exciting time to be a punter. When Betfair came along, I genuinely thought I might become a millionaire. The only trouble was I started behaving like one whenever I wasn’t sat in front of a computer screen and I never quite built up a proper bank!
SBC: How did you come to select football as your chosen sport?
MH:I don’t know anything else. I grew up in Moss Side, Manchester, during the 1980s. Our school didn’t even have cricket bats – it was five-aside, 11-a-side or crime, they were your choices. I wasn’t really cut out for drug dealing, so I just played football every day and followed Manchester City home and away.
SBC: Are there any particular events that you look forward to throughout the year?
MH:The Football League play-offs. The drama and tension is unbelievable because the teams are usually so equal and the stakes are so ridiculously high. It nearly always boils down to psychology, which I believe is my forte, and my record for calling the outright market is excellent. Over the past eight years, I’ve nailed 15 out of 24 winners when chance alone says I should only get six. It’s a record I’m very proud of.
SBC: What was your best ever bet?
MH: Bradford to win promotion from League Two in 2013. My ratings made them the strongest team in the division by some distance and I regarded manager Phil Parkinson very highly. I backed them almost every week after they lost the Capital One Cup final in late February – you could still get 14/1 in April! They made hard work of it at times but I never lost faith in them. Once they made the play-offs, I just knew they would smash it to pieces.
SBC: What kind of factors do you evaluate before making a selection?
MH: It usually boils down to a combination of psychology and numbers. I have a shot-based ratings system that gives me a shortlist every week but it’s my instincts that ultimately have the final say. To make sense of the psychology, I believe it’s important to understand each manager and his personal leadership style because that will ultimately determine a team’s reaction to any particular set of circumstances.
SBC: What has been the biggest influence on your betting career?
MH: Self-help books. I wasn’t really one for reading as a kid but I’ve developed a real passion for the social sciences and popular psychology over the past decade or so. And there’s virtually nothing in those books about lifestyle and mindset that isn’t applicable to betting. If you haven’t read ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ by Daniel Kahneman or ‘The Signal and The Noise’ by Nate Silver, then I suggest you stop what you’re doing right now and log into Amazon.
SBC: Do you have any future plans in regards to your service?
MH: Brazilian football is my latest buzz. The level of competitive balance is extraordinary, there’s plenty of value in the match prices and the league has great coverage in terms of statistical data. Over the past two seasons, I’ve made tidy profit without really scratching beneath the surface. This year, I intend to take my involvement to the next level by learning Portuguese and developing some good contacts out there.
SBC: What has been the biggest challenge you’ve faced in your betting career?
MH: About three years ago, I had to re-invent myself. There was a definite sea change in how the markets were behaving and I felt like I was on the outside looking in. There was a wave of new kids on the block, number-crunching nerds straight out of university, lured into football betting by the Moneyball story. Anyway, I devised my own ratings system using shot data and I haven’t looked back since. I’m sure it’s not nearly as sophisticated as what these guys are doing but it does the job I want it to do and keeps me in the loop
SBC: Do you have a favourite team that you follow regularly?
MH: I consider myself very lucky to be born a Manchester City fan. Not only because of the success the club is enjoying now but mainly because of our colorful past. I followed the club everywhere for nearly 20 years (1988-2006) and there’s barely a scenario in football I haven’t encountered at some point. As a punter, I can associate with the mood and emotions surrounding any club on any given week because I’ve been there before. I find it’s a great advantage.
SBC: How do you keep calm when you hit a run of losing bets?
MH: It’s never easy but I tend to read a relevant chapter from a book about randomness, like the Drunkard’s Walk or something by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It can help to put things into perspective when you’re not too determined to feel sorry for yourself. Sometimes, though, the only thing to do is take a complete break – one or two weeks usually, however long it takes to forget about how much you’ve lost and come back with a clean slate.
SBC: How do you organize your bank management?
MH: This is, without doubt, my biggest weakness. I keep my betting account separate from my bank account but, in truth, I’ve never really been good at distinguishing between the two. Previously, I’ve lacked the discipline to make short-term sacrifices for long-term gain, so I’ve never really progressed as a punter from one season to the next. It’s something I intend to change.
SBC: What is the best reason you could give to anyone who was thinking about following your service?
MH: Trust in my experience. You’re getting someone with a strategy that is refined and successful. I’ve been taking a professional approach to my betting for nearly 15 years now and I’ve completed my 10,000 hours. I’ve made most of the mistakes that can be made and I’ve learned from them, yet I’m not set in my ways or liable to get caught out by new trends. I work extremely hard to stay ahead of the game.
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